The 'Chuck Norris Premium' and Risks of Success

Welcome to another normal week in geopolitics - on your left, you'll see the Trump administration (allegedly) flying into Caracas at 1am and walking Nicolás Maduro out the door. No moral sermons, no democracy talk, just raw power politics, naked and unapologetic. Jacob and Marko unpack what this moment says about American empire, hypocrisy fatigue, regime change fantasies, and why history, from Panama to Iran, keeps repeating itself.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Emergency Podcast Announcement

(00:31) - US Attack on Venezuela: Initial Reactions

(02:11) - Historical Context of US Foreign Policy

(03:12) - Trump's Hypocrisy and US Foreign Policy Consistency

(03:49) - Marko's Perspective on the US Operation in Venezuela

(05:37) - Conspiracy Theories and Military Operations

(07:42 Implications of the US Operation in Venezuela

(11:56) - Potential Regime Change in Venezuela

(16:54) - Cuba as the Next Geopolitical Target

(27:42) - Latin America's Political Landscape and US Influence

(41:03) - Global Power Shifts and Resource Relevance

(41:45) - China's Influence in South America

(43:41) - Challenges of Economic Development in Latin America

(46:20) - Geopolitical Tensions and Regime Changes

(48:49) - The Chuck Norris Premium and Oil Prices

(01:04:28) - Middle Eastern Conflicts and Rivalries

(01:14:27) - Geopolitical Movies and Historical Events

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro