
S E47: Making Decisions in an Uncertain World
Think Like An Economist
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The Probabilities and the Payoffs of a Fair Bet
Nowi like to think i'm into taking risks, but justin your offer has made me reconsider that sum having a little bit of an identity crisis right now. A fair bet takes what you have and just adds risk to it, any risk that you face. We can boil it down to two things, the probabilities and the pay offs. In the bet i offered you, the probability you won 20 thousand dollars was 50%, and the probability you lost was 50%. So on average, you'd end up with no more money.
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