2min chapter

Effective Altruism: An Introduction – 80,000 Hours cover image

Seven: Prof Tetlock on why accurate forecasting matters for everything, and how you can do it better

Effective Altruism: An Introduction – 80,000 Hours

CHAPTER

What Is Counterfacture Rationing in the Real World?

In a computer game, people are asked to forecast what would have happened if the starting conditions had been a litle bit different. You're able to do something in the simulated world you can't do in the real world. Nobody can go back on your time machine and re run history and see what would have happen. People just deeply disagree a about these things, and they can disagree forever.

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