Introduction

A new way of forecasting technology costs is more grounded in history and empirical data than the integrated assessment models used by organizations like the i pc c. For many technologies, if not most, there will be no learning curve at all. But for a given technology x, the rate of learning tends to persist over time within a relatively narrow band. If we deploy them fast enugh to reach net zero by 20 50, as is our stated goal, then they will become cheap enough to utterly crush their fossil fuel competition within the decade. Cheap enough that the most aggressive energy transition scenaria won't cost anything. It will save over a trillion dollars relative to base line. We've gotten the sign wrong