Omar Aguilar and Sébastien Page: Market Outlook for 2024 and Beyond
The Long View
Intro
This chapter discusses the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions for 2024 amidst a challenging economic landscape. It highlights overly optimistic assumptions about the economy and underscores the lasting impact of inflation and pandemic-related factors on interest rates.
On today’s podcast, we’ll chat with two global asset-allocation specialists, Omar Aguilar from Charles Schwab and Sébastien Page from T. Rowe Price. Omar is CEO and chief investment officer for Schwab Asset Management. Before joining Schwab in 2011, he worked at a variety of firms including Financial Engines, ING Investment Management, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch Investment Management, and Bankers Trust.
And Sébastien Page is head of Global Multi-Asset Investing at T. Rowe Price, where he oversees a team of investment professionals dedicated to the firm’s multi-asset portfolios. He’s a member of T. Rowe Price’s Asset Allocation Committee, and he’s also a member of the Management Committee of T. Rowe Price Group. Prior to joining the firm in 2015, Sébastien was an executive vice president at Pimco, where he led a team focused on research and development of multi-asset solutions. And he was a senior managing director at State Street Global Markets before that.
Background
Bios: Omar Aguilar
Beyond Diversification: What Every Investor Needs to Know About Asset Allocation, by Sébastien Page
Current Economic Environment
“Eight Ways RIAs, Investors View Markets Over the Next Year: Schwab,” by Dinah Wisenberg Brin, thinkadvisor.com, June 14, 2024.
“The Fed Will Now Focus on Unemployment and Labor Markets, Says Charles Schwab’s Omar Aguilar,” Video interview on Closing Bell: Overtime, cnbc.com, July 15, 2024.
“All Eyes on Central Banks,” 2024 Global Market Outlook Midyear Update, troweprice.com, June 2024.
“Inflation’s Ripple Effect on the Economy,” Market Overtime interview with Omar Aguilar, youtube.com.
“Why a Weaker Jobs Market Is Sparking Recession Fears,” by Scott Horsley, npr.org, Aug. 2, 2024.
“Inflation Coming Down Too Fast Could Hurt Earnings, Says T.Rowe Price’s Sebastien Page,” Video interview on Closing Bell: Overtime, cnbc.com, Jan. 30, 2024.
“The Four Horsemen of the Recession,” by Sébastien Page, linkedin.com, June 2, 2023.
“US Economy in ‘Solid Position’ Despite Slowing Job Growth, Says Schwab’s Aguilar,” Video interview on Squawk on the Street, cnbc.com, Aug. 4, 2023.
“Special Topic: Can the Fed Cut Rates With Financial Conditions This Loose?” by Sébastien Page, linkedin.com, June 27, 2024.
“2024 Global Market Outlook: Tectonic Shifts Create New Opportunities,” by Arif Husain, Sébastien Page, and Justin Thomson, linkedin.com, Dec. 21, 2023.
Asset Allocation
“Perspective: Asset Classes Versus Risk Factors or Asset Classes and Risk Factors?” by Sébastien Page, The Journal of Portfolio Management, Dec. 31, 2023.
“The Myth of Diversification Reconsidered,” by William Kinlaw, Mark Kritzman, Sébastien Page, and David Turkington, The Journal of Portfolio Management, August 2021.
“Personalized Target-Date Funds,” by Kobby Aboagye, Sébastien Page, Louisa Schafer, and James Tzitzouris, The Journal of Portfolio Management, March 2024.
“The Hottest Debate in Asset Allocation: Value vs. Growth Stocks,” by Sébastien Page, linkedin.com, April 25, 2024.
“The Sector X-Ray,” by Sébastien Page, linkedin.com, Aug. 31, 2023.
Valuation and Interest Rates
“When Valuation Fails,” by Sébastien Page, linkedin.com, May 29, 2024.
“Relative Valuation: A Crucial but Imperfect Guide,” by Sébastien Page, linkedin.com, Feb. 8, 2024.
“Is the Market Broadening?” by Sébastien Page, linkedin.com, Jan. 8, 2024.
“Let’s Get Real (About Interest Rates),” by Sébastien Page, linkedin.com, March 7, 2024.
Other
“The Sahm Rule Recession Indicator Definition and How It’s Calculated,” by Mallika Mitra, Investopedia.com, Aug. 5, 2024.
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