Don’t expect a zebra
Think with Pinker
00:00
The Probability of a Single Event Like Prostate Cancer
The probability of a single event like that is a strange concept. Professor williams presented the base ray differently. Out of every thousand men, ten halfe prostate cancer. Most people, including doctors, flub the diagnosis problem when it's stated in probabilities. They visualize the true and false positives, and the proportion pops out. That's why we shouldn't be too quick in calling people irrational when they fail an abstract puzzle.
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