Club: I think we've done a good job of critiquing sort of what the guy misses. Do you guys want to discuss what he does get right or at least covers somewhat? Behan: Objectively, and then here's here's a couple things. He has this term, the big cycle. Every 250 years, there are things that go haywire for some reason. Club: The average empire lasts 300 years or something like that. Dalia doesn't even have a freaking references section.
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Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, has written several books on the world of investing and the economy in general based on his years of experience as manager of the world’s largest hedge fund. In the latest of his ‘Principles’ series, Dalio applies his quantitative approach of macro investing to analyzing countries, seeking to identify the factors that lead to strength such as education and work ethic, as well as lagging indicators such as a reserve currency that allow a country to spend beyond its means but ultimately presage a fall from dominance. Notably, Dalio sees China’s rise to the top of global power as likely, with America, while ahead, slowly declining. Tonight we debate the merits of his analysis, as well as the overall validity of a global macroeconomic approach that overlooks key factors such as demographics in forecasting long term power status.
