How Inflation Risk Keeps Long-Term Rates Elevated

Fed cut rates for the first time in nine months, yet mortgage rates climbed again, so Dave breaks down why and what happens next for the housing market. He explains that the Fed funds rate mainly moves short-term interest rates, while long-term lending tracks the 10-year Treasury and risk spreads, with inflation risk keeping mortgage rates stubborn. His housing market prediction and forecast: expect mortgage rates to hover in the low to mid sixes through 2025, meaning tight affordability and mostly stable home prices, while commercial real estate could benefit more due to shorter-term debt structures. Takeaways for investors include underwriting deals at today’s rates, tracking inflation and labor data, and preparing for steady transaction gains rather than a rapid drop in interest rates or a surge in housing prices.

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