Keeping it Simple | Ep. 20: Secular, Cyclical... it's all a fubar fugazi!
Keeping it Simple with Simplify Asset Management
The Fed Funding Rates - Is That the Best Trade in the Market?
There were several events that occurred throughout 2020 and 2021 which rewarded people on the inflationary side for reasons that I think we're out of their control. Leading indicators of inflation had in fact started to turn down at the end of 2021, which made most business cycle analysts predict declining inflation. In the beginning of 2022 we were obviously hit with an unpredictable shock being the Russia Ukraine invasion. That caused commodity price growth to go from something like 10% annualized to 100% annualized in like a month or two right. The whole shock Russia Ukraine event has now completely normalized, but it took six or eight months. So the mistake from from my perspective was not respecting a wartime shock which historically has been
