Should We Believe the Time of Perils Hypothesis?

We're often quite pessimistic about levels of existential risk, so I guess most famously Toby Ord, Ballparks, X-risk in this century at 1 in 6. The Royal East Islander Martin Reese is even more pessimistic still, he puts it at a coin flip, 50-50 that civilization is going to collapse by 2100. So roughly now is a very dangerous time, it's risky now, risky next century but pretty soon going to permanently drop to a lower level of risk. And then question three off stage today, should we believe the time of perils hypothesis? You can read the full paper on the Global Priorities Institute website if you'd like to read that.