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Episode 259: Comprehensive Overview: Estimating Expected Returns
The Rational Reminder Podcast
The Alternative to the Efficient Market Theory
The alternative to the efficient market theory is that periodically people do really weird things, but they're virtually entirely unpredictable. The late Steve Ross who was one of the giants of financial economics said in his view, the biggest failing of our profession wasn't that we couldn't forecast the future because that depends on getting new news and new news is always random. Even looking back at these weird things like the Tesla run up,. Why did Tesla run up 10 times last year? I've studied the company for years. I really don't have a clue.
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