Bayesian Probabilities vs Unpredictable Futures

I’ve been puzzled by David Deutsch’s AI claims for years. Today I finally had the chance to hash it out: Brett Hall, one of the foremost educators of David Deutsch’s ideas around epistemology & science, was brave enough to debate me!

Brett has been immersed in Deutsch’s philosophy since 1997 and teaches it on his Theory of Knowledge podcast, which has been praised by tech luminary Naval Ravikant. He agrees with Deutsch on 99.99% of issues, especially the dismissal of AI as an existential threat.

In this debate, I stress-test the Deutschian worldview, and along the way we unpack our diverging views on epistemology, the orthogonality thesis, and pessimism vs optimism.

Timestamps

0:00 — Debate preview & introducing Brett Hall

4:24 — Brett’s opening statement on techno-optimism

13:44 — What’s Your P(Doom)?™

15:43 — We debate the merits of Bayesian probabilities

20:13 — Would Brett sign the AI risk statement?

24:44 — Liron declares his “damn good reason” for AI oversight

35:54 — Debate milestone: We identify our crux of disagreement!

37:29 — Prediction vs prophecy

44:28 — The David Deutsch CAPTCHA challenge

1:00:41 — What makes humans special?

1:15:16 — Reacting to David Deutsch’s recent statements on AGI

1:24:04 — Debating what makes humans special

1:40:25 — Brett reacts to Roger Penrose’s AI claims

1:48:13 — Debating the orthogonality thesis

1:56:34 — The powerful AI data center hypothetical

2:03:10 — “It is a dumb tool, easily thwarted”

2:12:18 — Clash of worldviews: goal-driven vs problem-solving

2:25:05 — Ideological Turing test: We summarize each other’s positions

2:30:44 — Are doomers just pessimists?

Show Notes

Brett’s website — https://www.bretthall.org

Brett’s Twitter — https://x.com/TokTeacher

The Deutsch Files by Brett Hall and Naval Ravikant

* https://nav.al/deutsch-files-i

* https://nav.al/deutsch-files-ii

* https://nav.al/deutsch-files-iii

* https://nav.al/deutsch-files-iv

Books:

* The Fabric of Reality by David Deutsch

* The Beginning of Infinity by David Deutsch

* Superintelligence by Nick Bostrom

* If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies by Eliezer Yudkowsky

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