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Ep. 218: Nuno Reis, PhD - On Uncertainty, The Dangers of Probability Dogma, and more

The Decision-Making Studio Podcast

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Bayesian Statistics and Subjective Beliefs in Decision-Making

Exploring the historical origins of Bayesian statistics, the chapter discusses how Thomas Bayes' formula for conditional probability was used during World War II. It delves into the shift from objective to subjective perception of probability, emphasizing how personal beliefs influence decision-making. The chapter also examines the dangers and limitations of Bayesian thinking, highlighting the importance of understanding constraints and fostering creativity in decision-making processes.

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