2min chapter

The Gray Area with Sean Illing cover image

Best of: Alison Gopnik changed how I think about love

The Gray Area with Sean Illing

CHAPTER

The Two Big Ideas That Bayesian Reasoning Could Give You

Whenever somebody begins talking about Bayesian reasoning, my just bullshit detector is going wild because it's so... People are so bad at estimating their priors. It often seems to me to be dangerous in that it gives a false sense of precision about what people think or how strongly they should believe it. In some ways, it is useful in exposing what people are thinking. But as a way of reasoning about the world, it just seems to relocate where the potential flaw actually is.

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