Joe Carlsmith on How We Change Our Minds About AI Risk
Future of Life Institute Podcast
The Unimaginable Future of AI
I think I do it in kind of various informal ways. In some sense, this is just the whole game of like, how do you do a good epistemology and forecasting? But I have tried to kind of get intentionally concrete and maybe in some sense, unrealistically concrete in order to have sort of my gut or my visceral Epistemology start participating more directly. Sometimes for example, people are hesitant to describe a concrete future with AI because it's true that sort of the more specific you go, the less likely they're going to be. And so any like sufficiently concrete future you describe will be very unlikely to be the specific one.
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