GM33: Drilling into the Oil Market ft. Rory Johnston
Top Traders Unplugged
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A lot of my focus has been on the supply demand kind of this lagged model. The big part thing I'm working on right now is essentially now casting that model. And then from there, I'm looking to actually begin forecasting.
Today we are joined by Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, a physical commodities research firm based in Toronto, Canada. We talk about Rory’s in-depth research focused on the oil sector, as well as the current narratives impacting the price of oil right now. We discuss his deep dives into the workings of the oil industry, focused on adding a broader perspective to price assumptions and market fluctuations. From Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to China’s Covid lockdown, Rory shares his reflections on diverse market responses to geopolitical events around the world. Is there going to be a big energy demand from China going forward? What is it going to take to stabilize oil prices? How does inflation factor in? Join us on this fascinating exploration of the role oil plays, and the variables that can change the trajectory of the energy market.
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Episode TimeStamps:
02:31 - Introduction to Rory Johnston and Commodity Context
07:15 - Are people over-fixated on data?
09:04 - Is Geopolitical analysis useless?
16:43 - Making assumptions
19:38 - The challenges with data
28:36 - Indicators of volatility
32:26 - Quantifying the fundamental value
37:02 - Having an edge in oil
45:27 - Understanding the CRT Report
49:17 - Oil price - a play on the dollar?
52:27 - An indicator for the state of the world
57:06 - How are oil and natural gas related?
01:00:58 - Fertilizer's impact on natural gas
01:02:43 - The research perspective
01:04:32 - Key takeaways from Niels
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