Is There a Recession in the US?

Inflationary impulses are going to aggravate the demand side which hasn't yet rolled over. Consumption is still pretty good, it's been very resilient and that has a very strong correlation with the unemployment rate. So if unemployment moves higher, conference board consumer confidence drops,. You get a rollover and consumption. People are still spending, even though inflation is very high; they have jobs. But what does that mean for corporate earnings? Because in theory, if people are still out there spending tolerating higher prices, you're going to be able to continue passing on your higher input costs. And I do think that we could get earnings having to be revised lower.