Understanding Regression Towards The Mean
The Incerto Podcast
Introduction
Regression towards the mean attempts to dampen our hyperbolic reaction to both outlies and thos ficant, but rare exceptions. It explains how a random variable which lies outside the norm will tend to eventually return to the normal. Every time we sit down to a cathartic session at the pokes, our odds of winning on that machine are always the same. You might hit hot streak and strike feature after feature, but while you may have stumbled across against the odds victories on this session, played the machine long enough, and random luck will regress to the mean. Which is just to say, you will regress towards the mean.
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