5min chapter

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The Chemicals Market Is Bearish – Stupendously Bearish | Paul Hodges

Forward Guidance

CHAPTER

How to Estimate the Track Record of Yield Curves Forecasting Recession

The yield curve has a very good track record of forecasting economic growth or economic contractions, a recessions. So that's why I think, you know, we're rapidly approaching in the recession in the US, but probably not one already. And my view was strengthened when I saw bank earnings, US bank earnings, earlier this week. But if you're doing macro we do macro macro to me is more than analyzing your curves and it can be done by 22-year-olds too. We have access to the best source of information in the world for our clients' value. If we've got things 100% right then we're trying to add to their understanding what's going on.

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