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Prediction Market FAQ

Astral Codex Ten Podcast

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Predicting Markets - How Much Money Would You Have Been Able to Make on a Prediction Market?

The United States currently classifies prediction markets as gambling, so real money prediction markets are mostly illegal. This is forced markets to pursue one of three strategies: operate outside the United States, closed to US citizens or use play money only. Polymarket fills this niche effectively and LinkinPost will probably replace it. I want a world where people who are best at correcting mispricings in prediction markets can make full-time jobs out of it. Most big prediction markets are usually within 10% of each other but not always within 1%.

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