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Episode 17: What is going to happen next?
On Geopolitics
The Complexity of the Process of Forecasting
I think it's an excellent point because one is that we don't. I found it very frustrating where people sort of like, you know, for instance, after the revolution in Iran, there was a huge amount of sort of self-reflect. We tend to look at these in a very sort of isolated manner without really looking at all the host of other events and interventions or non-interventions which might affect them. But I don't think there's much merit in kicking yourself and not actually having predicted it. What you can do is just improve the processes, I suppose, as you say, where, youknow, you're able to assess it.
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