When we launched the forecast in february, we gave emanual mcroni abroughly 80% chance of ultimately winning. Back then, he was at about 24%. And the poles, after russia launched its invasion of ukraine, he shot up a bit to about 30%. But has since fallen back down to earth about 26%, according to our average. What really changed is tht the marine lapin his 20 17 challenger, has surged roughly from 17 % to 23%. So the model is looking a lot closer than it did before, giving mc cron only a 74 percent chance of winning. That means the average error historically would be enough to up end his lead
President Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen of the nationalist-populist National Rally party will advance to a run-off; in the continuation of our series, we ask what to expect in an unexpectedly tight race. Russian military communications have proven easy to intercept, leading to poor co-ordination and heavy battlefield losses. And South Korea’s millennials are frantically hunting for Pokémon-themed snacks.
For full access to print, digital and audio editions of The Economist, subscribe here www.economist.com/intelligenceoffer