
Two: Dr Toby Ord on why the long-term future matters more than anything else & what to do about it
Effective Altruism: An Introduction – 80,000 Hours
Is There a Realistic Chance That All Out Nuclear War Would Have Led to Humanity Extinction?
An all out nuclear war would not have led to humanity's extinction. But it could happen if models that are currently being used just aren't the right models. The risk for this century is something like one and six, like russian rolette. People who think there's very little risk really do hold a very elaborate series of beliefs about what will happen in the distant future. And so it is actually tricky to get this trickier than previously thought.
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