Introduction

Why I think strong general AI is coming soon. Written by Paulby, posted on 28th September 2022. I think there is little time left before someone builds AGI, median around 2030. Once upon a time I didn't think this. This post attempts to walk through some of the observations and insights that collapsed my estimates. The core ideas are as follows: We've already captured way too much of intelligence with way too little effort. Everything points towards us capturing way more of intelligence with very little additional effort. Trying to create a self-consistent worldview that handles all available evidence seems to force very weird conclusions. Some of GPT-3's productised code it can run right now