Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." Whalen breaks down why markets are heading into a turbulent year-end. With the Treasury pulling $1 trillion out of the banking system and the Fed holding emergency meetings with dealers, a liquidity crunch is brewing just as big banks close their books after Thanksgiving. Chris explains why there won't be a December rate cut despite Fed happy talk, why the "silent crisis" in commercial real estate and private credit is spreading to insurance companies holding retail investors' annuities, and why public companies with Bitcoin exposure are about to report massive losses at year-end. Plus: the housing correction has officially begun as home price appreciation goes flat and GSEs start marking down property values.
Links:
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
The Wrap: Is it November 2018 All Over Again?: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira778
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro: Welcome back to The Wrap with Chris Whalen
0:41 No consensus for Fed cut in December
2:22 Why John Williams' "happy talk" doesn't matter
4:35 Treasury is the gorilla: $1 trillion drained from markets
4:58 Year-end liquidity crisis brewing
6:24 What that emergency Fed meeting was really all about
8:40 Bitcoin's ugly fall
14:45 Housing correction ahead?
27:04 What Chris Is Watching: Money markets and bank earnings
28:47 Commercial real estate & private credit pain
30:29 Where to find Chris and final thoughts
