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4min chapter
The Sovereign Debt Spiral | James Lavish
Forward Guidance
The Inverted Yield Curve and the Credit Cycle
James Carville: We're in what's called a debt spiral. He says as the government needs to borrow more, it's borrowing at a higher rate and creating larger interest rate payments which creates need for more debt. If we go into recession, then you can expect the economy to dip anywhere from 8 to 14%. It's called 10%. Well, you're going to take a 10% hit on GDP, which gives you a 10% at least hit on your taxes. So, that isn't time to buy. And the debt cycle renews. The Phoenix rises from the ashes.
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