I Don't Know 25 33% One in Three, One in Four Chance That Happens in the Next 20 Years

I think it's I don't know would I give it 50 50 odds that happens in some areas, like an entire city, possibly an entire state. Do I think it'll happen in an entire city in the next 20 years? I think it has more than a 10% chance of happening. Just coming up with a list of factors on how to analyze this decision is hard enough. It's just so multifactorial and you can look at historical analogs but those operate on such a large timeframe and there's really not too many of them.