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Guy Adami welcomes back Michelle Meyer, Chief Economist at Mastercard, to dig into what Mastercard's data is saying about the American consumer heading into the holiday season. With mortgage rates above 7% and sentiment surveys still gloomy, Michelle explains why spending keeps holding up. The answer is a healthy labor market, strong household balance sheets, and a K-shaped economy where upper-income households are spending faster but every income group is still growing. She breaks down Mastercard's forecast for 5.5% holiday spending growth (excluding autos and gas), the strongest in four years, and how much of that is real volume versus inflation. They also discuss why real wages are sitting right on the line and why diesel prices are worth watching. Michelle shares new research showing that AI power users shop across more merchants and start their holiday buying earlier. The conversation closes with what to watch in the labor market and a preview of Mastercard's 2027 outlook, coming in early December. Michelle's holiday forecast report is linked in the show notes.

Show Notes

• Holiday 2026: AI assists and last-minute lists (MasterCard Economics Institute)

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