Polls vs. prediction markets (Robin Hanson & Agnes Callard, with Arnold Brooks)
Minds Almost Meeting
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Wolves and Sheep: The Dynamics of Financial Markets
This chapter explores the interactions between informed traders, termed 'wolves,' and uninformed noise traders, referred to as 'sheep,' in financial markets. It discusses the balance these groups create in market behavior and the implications of market participation dynamics, particularly in prediction markets. The conversation also highlights the societal value generated through structured betting markets and the paradox in people's engagement with information versus gambling.
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