Understanding Ergodicity: The Dynamics of Outcomes in Parallel and Sequential Trials

In which we sit in the garden, roast gently in the sun, and talk about cognitive biases, Panglossian optimism, Russian roulette, snakes on planes, and why most design is... fine actually. A very one-take kind of episode. Leaf-in-coffee energy throughout.

• Confirmation bias affects individuals. But if you want to harm an entire organisation, you need validation.
• You can be right, they can be right, or (more likely) you’re both missing something and a third way exists.
• Heuristics are usually good. It’s when you step into a new context that they betray you.
• Change start with acceptance. Weirdly, that’s when things can shift.
• Almost everything on our shelves is poorly designed in some way ... and yet it’s still there.

Links, Ideas, and People Referenced

• Gary Klein – firefighter heuristic/pattern recognition story – more at https://youtu.be/QKpMLYwLRR4?si=8ie9txFbL__Q88gI
• Daniel Kahneman – cognitive biases, focusing illusion
• Nora Bateson – snake instinct, context-specific intuition
• XKCD’s "10,000" Comic – https://xkcd.com/1053/
• Taylor Pearson on Ergodicity – https://taylorpearson.me/ergodicity/
• Prisoner's Dilemma – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner%27s_dilemma
• Candide by Voltaire – Dr. Pangloss and "all for the best" satire
• Gary’s Economics (YouTube) – https://www.youtube.com/@garyseconomics
• Oliver Burkeman – stress, lateness, perspective
• 10–10–10 Rule – “Will I care in 10 minutes, 10 months, 10 years?”

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