THINKING, FAST & SLOW (DANIEL KAHNEMAN) - Listening books
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How to Discipline Intuition
Your beliefs should be constrained by the logic of probability. The relative rules for cases such as the Tom W problem are provided by Bayesian statistics. There are two ideas to keep in mind about Bayesian reasoning and how we tend to mess it up. This is often not intuitively obvious. Second, intuitive impressions of the diagnosticity of evidence are often exaggerated.
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