Is There a Recession in 2023?

The MBER looks at a wide range of data, everything from GDP to jobs. And then based on their judgment as to whether the economy has experienced a broad base across lots of different industries,. declining economic activity that's persistent for a few quarters is a recession. Now, unfortunately, if we had a recession in 2023, they would determine that in 2023. It takes a while to get all the data revisions to come in and the dust to settle.