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4min chapter
Scout and Soldier Mindsets (with Julia Galef)
Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg
The Power of Expected Value Thinking
Elon Musk is someone about whom people tend to describe him with things like the self-belief model of success. He said he gave each of them about a 10% chance of success, even lower than Jeff Bezos' 30% estimate of success for Amazon. And so both Tesla and SpaceX are positive expected value for Elon. But this kind of expected value thinking isn't what tends to motivate people on a day-to-day basis.
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