The Power of Expected Value Thinking

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Elon Musk is someone about whom people tend to describe him with things like the self-belief model of success. He said he gave each of them about a 10% chance of success, even lower than Jeff Bezos' 30% estimate of success for Amazon. And so both Tesla and SpaceX are positive expected value for Elon. But this kind of expected value thinking isn't what tends to motivate people on a day-to-day basis.

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What are "scout" and "soldier" mindsets? How can we have productive disagreements even when one person isn't in scout mindset? Is knowing about good rationality habits sufficient to reason well? When do we naturally tend to be in scout mindset or soldier mindset? When is each mindset beneficial or harmful? Are humans "rationally irrational"? What are the two different types of confidence? What are some practical strategies for shifting our mindset in the moment from soldier to scout?

Find out more about Julia at juliagalef.com.

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