2min chapter

The FTX catastrophe (with Byrne Hobart, Vipul Naik, Maomao Hu, Marcus Abramovich, and Ozzie Gooen)

Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg

notes

CHAPTER

The Kelly Criterion Based Betting Is the Right Way for People to Bet

Sam said that he disagreed with the Kelly criterion which is a fairly standard way to think about how it decides bets. And Sam said that he would actually size his bets much bigger than the Kelly criterion. In this following quote, he gets into more specifics about how he thinks he would size a bet in a particular case.

00:00

Transcript

Episode notes

What the heck happened with FTX and Sam Bankman-Fried? Were there early warning signs that most people failed to notice? What could've been done differently, and by whom? What effects will this have on the EA movement going forward?

Timestamps:

00:01:37 — Intro & timeline
00:51:48 — Byrne Hobart
01:39:52 — Vipul Naik
02:18:35 — Maomao Hu
02:41:19 — Marcus Abramovitch
02:49:38 — Ozzie Gooen
03:21:40 — Wrap-up & outro

Byrne Hobart writes The Diff, a newsletter covering inflections in finance and tech, which has 47,000+ readers. Previously he worked at a hedge fund covering Internet and media companies. Follow Byrne on Twitter at @ByrneHobart or subscribe to The Diff at thediff.co.

Vipul Naik holds a PhD in mathematics from the University of Chicago and is currently the head of data science at Equator Therapeutics, a drug discovery startup. He previously worked at a tech startup called LiftIgniter and then at The Arena Group, a media / tech company that acquired LiftIgniter. Learn more about him at his website, vipulnaik.com.

Maomao Hu is a blockchain, fintech, and AI entrepreneur and thought leader. He has been involved in organizations ranging from leading investment banks to new startups, to solve both microstructure problems like market surveillance and macrostructure problems like capital allocation. Currently, he leads development and quantitative research at asset manager Zerocap. Learn more about him at his website, thefirenexttime.com.

Marcus Abramovich is a managing partner at Enlightenment Ventures, an EA-aligned cryptocurrency hedge fund. Marcus also leads a Facebook group and Discord community of effective altruists focused on accumulating capital to donate to EA causes, and advises several cryptocurrency projects. Marcus discovered effective altruism as a PhD candidate at the University of Waterloo and professional poker player. Email him at marcus.s.abramovitch@gmail.com.

Ozzie Gooen is the president of The Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute. He has a background in programming and research. He previously founded Guesstimate and worked at the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford. Follow him on Twitter at @ozziegooen or learn more about his current work at quantifieduncertainty.org.

Further Reading:

"Clarifications on diminishing returns and risk aversion in giving" by Rob Wiblin @ the EA forum on why he disagrees with the SBF's risk-taking approach [link]

References:

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