There does develop consensus around certain things, but it doesn't mean that people know exactly what the exact level of warming over a certain period of time is with absolute certainty. And predictions about the future depend not only on the amount of fossil fuel that is burnt, but also on a lot of other very complex systems. When you can't replicate an experiment, it can actually drum somebody out of the field completely, because it is a violation of a fundamental ethical norm in science.

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