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One: Toby Ord on existential risks
Effective Altruism: Ten Global Problems – 80000 Hours
Is the Natural Extinction Rate a Good Source of Evidence?
We have only had about a hundred centuries of civilization. And the equivalent number ends at being two % risk in a century, which is not really low enough to make some of these arguments. It could be that i 'm analyzing it at the wrong level, and that the dangers are more from having smaller levels of collapse. Even though we're more likely to recover, there's still a kind of greater chance of screwing things up. But for my purposes, i'm thinking of t as there's no civilization any more.
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