As The Bid takes a short break for the holidays, we’re introducing listeners to Market Take, the weekly macro podcast from the BlackRock Investment Institute. Market Take offers fast, digestible insights on what’s moving markets - and this week, the focus is squarely on the labor market.

Senior Economist Nicholas Fawcett breaks down why softer U.S. labor data is reinforcing expectations for another potential Federal Reserve rate cut. With hiring and labor supply both cooling, policymakers are watching these trends closely as they navigate the balance between inflation control and economic resilience. Nicholas also explores how delayed jobs data complicates the Fed’s visibility into the economy, what markets are pricing in ahead of the December meeting, and how fiscal dynamics in the UK are shaping long-term bond views.

Whether you’re tracking monetary policy, macro signals, or broader capital markets trends, this short episode offers a concise view of the forces shaping the economic backdrop.

Key Insights

· The U.S. labor market is softening, raising the likelihood of another Fed rate cut.

· Payrolls show a “no hiring, no firing” pattern as labor demand and supply slow.

· Delayed jobs data may create noise, but markets still expect a quarter-point cut.

· Fiscal tightening in the UK influences gilt valuations and long-term yield dynamics.

· Labor market trends, inflation, and rates continue to guide broader market sentiment

labor market, inflation, interest rates, Federal Reserve, capital markets, macro trends, market commentary, economic outlook

This content is for informational purposes only and is not an offer or a solicitation. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the listener. Reference to any company or investment strategy mentioned is for illustrative purposes only and not investment advice. In the UK and non-European Economic Area countries, this is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. In the European Economic Area, this is authorized and regulated by the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets. For full disclosures, visit blackrock.com/corporate/compliance/bid-disclosures.

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