Show from 09/12/25
Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel analyze the recent inflation data, highlighting the implications for next week’s pivotal Fed meeting. The Professor suggests a 25-basis-point rate cut is likely, but notes that a weak retail sales report could justify a 50-basis-point move. He emphasizes the importance of the September dot plot in gauging Fed sentiment and explores the limited current impact of tariffs on inflation metrics, despite market anticipation. Siegel also points to diverging signals in the CPI and PPI reports and the potential for dissenting votes within the Fed as signs of growing internal debate. (9:28) Jeremy is joined by Sam Rines, Jeff Weniger, and Chris Gannatti for a dynamic discussion covering Fed expectations, political volatility, and macroeconomic developments. The team examines Oracle’s massive AI-linked bookings and its potential to reshape the software sector, discusses how manufacturers are navigating tariffs with pricing power, and reflects on potential Supreme Court developments that could spark a surprise fiscal stimulus. They dive into early innings of AI adoption, exploring how government policy, private innovation, and breakthroughs in biotech and quantum computing may drive future productivity. The group discusses European defense spending as a de-risked investment theme and the rising significance of Asian defense budgets, particularly in Japan, India, and South Korea. They close with commentary on under-owned trades like gold and Japanese equities, the challenge of disrupting entrenched players in healthcare, and optimism around innovation driving long-term growth despite short-term valuation concerns.
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