China has already surpassed america by the most common measure, not a and you mention that there are a few things holding china back in that regard. The immediate problem is twofold. This is the attempt to stamp out every outbreak of cover 19 as it occurs - even if that means locking down big cities. And then on top of that, there's this long property cycle that china is coming to the end of. One intriguing possibility is that china might actually overtake america by around the mid 20 thirties.