On this week’s episode of The Horizon, John discusses why inflation is rising in a slow “trickle,” with food prices leading the gains, and how this feeds into rising odds of Fed rate cuts and a ~4% 10-year treasury. He explains why today’s financing window—around 5% for agency multifamily—creates rare positive leverage and is already sparking activity. With construction starts falling and labor/material costs high, John outlines a favorable long-term setup: tighter future supply, elevated cap rates, and improving fundamentals. He also maps the risks (recession, weaker jobs data) and where to focus: Class A/B multifamily, necessity retail, medical office, and storage—while flagging trade-exposed West Coast industrial and some discretionary retail, and noting office as a potential “dark horse” on rising RTO pressure.
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