Vertical integration and M&A risk

John Rubino, [Substack https://rubino.substack.com/ ], joins me for another nuanced discussion around the fundamental drivers, macro catalysts, and technical momentum factors that are driving silver and the precious metals stocks to new all-time highs here at the end of 2025.   We also review trading strategies and the potential for valuation reratings to even higher levels in PM equities, that have lagged where valuations should be, despite their big moves higher on the price charts already seen this year. 

We start off reviewing silver’s continued breakout up above $77 to new all-time weekly highs on both the spot and futures charts, as we spoke on Friday morning. John outlines that there may be a few different types of super whale investors underpinning the silver price, from sovereign governments and select central banks, to large institutions that have been underweight the sector, and even manufacturers trying to secure larger supply inventories to front-run potentially higher longer-term prices.

We review the slightly different demand drivers silver with both the industrial component, and the growing investment demand. Next we consider how much technical pricing momentum may be fueling more generalist speculation into the metal and mining stocks,  where buying simply begets more buying.

While most market participants recognize that there will be strong record Q4 earnings for gold and silver producers, the spread between Q3 and Q4 average metals prices is so vast that it raises the question of whether the market is truly looking forward enough and properly factoring that into current company valuations.

We highlight the disparity between where gold and silver prices have run to and the comparatively low value that ounces in the ground are receiving inside of the PM developers.

We discuss how merger & acquisitions may shift to larger takeover premiums and higher prices for ounces in the ground, if the available assets and companies keep getting picked off the board.  John points out that it could be manufacturing end users that lead the charge in acquiring silver producers, just to guarantee future supply.  That would be a new dynamic for M&A from buyers that are less price sensitive, and just need to have metal for fabrication demand for their end products.

Wrapping up, we broaden out the discussion into the strength being seen across the whole metals complex, from gold and copper, to platinum, and palladium, throughout 2025. John believes that we are entering an environment where the world is waking up to the importance of supply chains and raw materials, which is going to lead to a continued commodities supercycle.

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