Polls vs. prediction markets (Robin Hanson & Agnes Callard, with Arnold Brooks)
Minds Almost Meeting
Assessing Self-Identity: The Wolf and Sheep Metaphor
This chapter explores the metaphor of being a 'wolf' or a 'sheep' in relation to self-assessment of intelligence and skills. It emphasizes the importance of practical experience through betting as a means to calibrate one's beliefs and abilities, while advocating for continuous self-evaluation to avoid misjudgment.
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