Trillions in investor capital has been locked up in the "T-bill and Chill" trade for several years now.But will the Fed expected to cut rates materially over the next year, that trade is coming to an end.Where should all that capital consider going next?Portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz and I dive into this key question in this video.
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0:00 - Welcome and Introduction
2:09 - Discussion on Speculative Market Trends and Dot-Com Echoes
4:00 - Comparison to Meme Stocks and Cathie Wood-Type Tech Stocks
5:40 - Historical Context of 1998-2000 Dot-Com Boom
7:11 - Analysis of High-Beta vs. Low-Beta Stocks1
1:50 - Growth vs. Value Performance During Dot-Com Era1
4:22 - Speculative Mania and Risk Management Strategies
18:03 - Importance of Diversification and Active Management
19:41 - Growth vs. Value Index and Historical Trends
22:01 - Small-Cap vs. Large-Cap and Profitability Trends
25:06 - Recent Market Trends and High-Beta Outperformance
29:03 - Potential Triggers for High-Beta Stock Correction
33:12 - Economic Slowdown as a White Swan Risk
38:01 - Critique of BLS Data Reliability
43:31 - Need for Real-Time Data and Fed Reform
47:51 - Model-Based Fed Policy and Transparency
50:21 - Bond Market Dynamics and Yield Curve Strategy
56:26 - Positioning for Potential Fed Rate Cuts
58:39 - End of T-Bill and Chill Trade Considerations
1:02:17 - Closing Remarks and Call to Action
1:04:14 - Michael’s Advice on Separating Politics from Investing_____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.
