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Episode 37: Silicon Valley Bank; Credit Suisse; the Transfer of Wealth from Equity to Debt; Aussie Banks win in Flight to Quality; Default Cycle Ramps Up; Consumer Buffers; Best Trades and more

Complexity Premia

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How to Forecast a Recession in the US

In March, we started off strongly and then the turbulence created by Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Swiss created some choppy conditions mid-month. But we finished the month very strongly and returns have been extremely robust over the April month to date. Our only long-duration strategy, which has an average of about 5.5 years of fixed-rate bond exposure called the Active Composite Bond Fund, returned a solid 2.8% in March net of fees. Please note that past performance is no guide to future returns and please read the product disclosure statements to better understand the risks. And Chris, I suppose the related theme would be corporate default cycle as you know Colabar has been forecasting a big

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