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Ep: 88 Critically Creative (Critical and Creative Thinking 2.0).

ToKCast

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Free Markets Are Inherently Unpredictable

We understand simple arithmetic. We can program a computer with virtual solar systems to calculate where a planet will be at any time from now to a thousand years hence. But we cannot in the scientific sense predict the behaviour of markets well at all and indeed we have good explanations as to why such prediction is beyond us. In free markets there are not only too many finely tuned variables, most of which we don't even know which come to bear on prices - this makes prediction intractable. And that many of the variables depend upon again the inherent unpredictability of people who are knowledge creators. Anyone purporting to predict markets is pretending they are prophesying. They are saying they know what people are going

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