On today's podcast:

1) President Joe Biden faces the biggest test yet of his ability to avert a wider war in the Middle East following US-led air strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen aimed at halting their campaign of attacks on shipping traffic in the Red Sea.

2) After a rally in global bank stocks at year-end, the largest US banks need to show results that support their improved valuations.

3) After years of anticipation, the first US exchange-traded funds that invest directly in the biggest cryptocurrency have begun trading. Billions of dollars changed hands Thursday and the token briefly surged past $49,000 following the US Securities and Exchange Commission decision to grant them approval after markets closed on Wednesday.

Full Transcript:

Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today. Oil is surging this morning. It's up about three percent, trading at seventy four dollars twenty three cents for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate. That's after the US and Allies launched more than sixty air strikes overnight on Houthy targets in Yemen. They're trying to stop the Iran back groups shipping attacks in the Red Sea. Bloomberg's Nick Watams has more on the challenges ahead for the White House. The challenge for Joe Biden is he said, they wanted to deter the Uthies, but they also don't want to ignite a wider war. And the question is whether the Huties will stand down let's see if somewhat unlikely, or use this as a rallying cry told me, pursue their aims both against Israel and CEC's firing Gaza and against the United States in the Dallies. Bloomberg's Nick Watams reporting the Hoothie say the attacks killed five of their members and wounded six others, and they are promising the strikes will not go unanswered. Well back here in the US, Nathan, closing arguments have been delivered and now oh, we wait for the judge's decision. And then. A New York civil fraud trial of former President Donald Trump and Bloomberg's Amy Morris reports New York Attorney General Letitia James is seeking three hundred and seventy million dollars in fines and to bar Trump from the New York real estate industry. No matter how powerful you are, no no matter how rich you are, that no one is above the law. Appeals are likely, but this case could end Donald Trump's role in New York real estate for good. Trump spoke out in court attacking the judge overseeing the case and Attorney General James. Later, he gave a press conference outside the courtroom. He's a political hack, the attorney general. The judge is obviously extremely friendly with the group the Attorney General's office, as Trump orchestrated a sweeping fraud in which he inflated his net worth to obtain favorable loans. The judge expects to rule by January thirty first, Amy Morris, Bloomberg Radio, Okaymie, thank you. Meanwhile, President Biden's son Hunter May face a trial of his own this summer, right in the middle of his father's reelection care campaign. Hunter Biden has pleaded not guilty to charges that he failed to pay taxes on millions of dollars in foreign business income that followed the collapse of a plea deal last year. The judge in Los Angeles says he's considering a June twentieth trial date. Well. Turning to the markets now, Nathan, we continue to watch bitcoin. Following yesterday's historic Wall Street debut, the first US exchange traded funds investing directly in the largest digital currency finally went live, and we get the latest from Bloomberg's John Tucker, John and Karen. The batch of almost a dozen funds, including offerings from investment powerhouses black Rock and Fidelity Investments, got off to a strong start with two point three billion dollars exchanging hands the gray Scale Bitcoin Trust, so the largest ever first date turnover for an ETF. Gray Scale Investment CEO is Michael Sonenshein is just such a historic moment, in such a milestone, So thrilled, feeling really good today black Rock ice Hears Bitcoin Trust saw a billion dollars change hands that's the fifth largest ETF launch on record. Several firms turn to fee waivers in a bid to stand out, offering their ETFs for free for the first six or twelve months. One of the next stages of Wall Street adoption it's going to be when options tied to these ETFs are approved. A bitcoing this morning down about half a percent to about forty six thousand dollars. John Tucker, Bloomberg Radio, all right, John, thank you. Another focus for investors this morning turns to earnings, specifically bank earnings. With four of Wall Street's biggest reporting today, we get a preview from Bloomberg SHINELI, BASEK. Investors will be watching for what the cost base looks like. Has it gotten more expensive to operate and can they keep those costs in lines under further pressure on certain lines of revenue. Revenue might jump this year relative to last year for some of these banks. Investors will be watching for net interest income expectations at Bank of America, JP, Morgan Wells Fargo, and City Group as interest rates start to stabilize in twenty twenty four relative to the year before. Now, the question is who's the big winner and how many loans do Americans really need and how many of those loans start to go sour? Shanalie Basset, Bloomberg Radio, all right, Chanelle, thank you. On the economic front, we'll get another reading on inflation this morning. The Producer Price Index is forecast who have risen one tenth of one percent in December. The report comes a day after consumer prices rose more than expected. Cleveland Fed President Lorettamester says the latest data may put on top of a possible rate cut on hold. I think March is probably too early in my estimation for a rate decline because I think we need to see some more evidence. I think the December CPI report just shows there's more work to do. And Cleveland Fed President the Rettamester says the latest figures reinforce her view that policy is in a good position to assess incoming data on prices and employment and overseas, Karen Christine Leaguard says the European Central Bank will start lowering interest rates once it's convinced inflation's headed back to its two percent goal. Here's the ECB president speaking through an interpreter on French television. President, I cannot give you a date. But if we win this battle, if we reach the two percent inflation target as we're predicting twenty twenty five, and if it's confirmed by the data in the months to come, if this goes according to plan, and I'm being careful the way I say it, but I'm very confident, then the rates will start going down. And after Christine le Guard spoke money markets adjusted their rate cut bets. They now firmly favor six quarter percent reductions this year instead of five. Well, the UK economy saw a modest rebound in in November, Nathan, gross domestic product rows three tenths of a percent, bouncing back from a drop of the same scale in October. Economists had expected an increase of two tenths of a percent in saying in the UK Karen shares of Berbery are being taken to the cleaners. This morning, the trench code maker slashed its profit forecast due to a drop in sales in the key Christmas quarter. The one point, the shares were down fourteen percent. Now Burbery is lower by about seven percent. All right, Nathan, thank you. It's time now for a look at some of the other stories making news around the world, and for that. We're joined by Bloomberg's Amy Morris Samy, Good morning, Good morning, Karen. A polar vortex is about to unleash an Arctic blast across much of the US this weekend. Bloomberg meteorologist Rob Carolyn tracking the system. Wizard warnings are effective for parts of Iowa, Illinois, and southern Minnesota, while winter storm mornings are an effect for much of the western and central Great Lakes. Win advisories stretch from Texas into western New York and western New England. Floodwatchers are in effect from coastal portions of New England along the coast of New Jersey. Bloomberg Meteorologist Rob Carolyn, and the storm is going to bring with it bitter cold temperatures. On the day of the GOP Iowa Caucus, Florida Governor Ron de Santez is urging his supporters to brave the cold this coming Monday, So I'm asking you to go out there. I'm asking you to brave the elements. Former UN Ambassador NICKI Haley also acknowledged the coming bitter cold, asking for support at the polls. I'm going to be out there and i want you to go out there. Haley has topped Dissantis for the first time in the latest Iowa poll, but former President Donald Trump holds a dominant lead. Now that the Pentagon Inspector General is looking into the secret hospitalization of Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, the administration is defending its procedures. Bloomberg's Nancy lions at the very latest, the Inspector General will be looking into the process that's being followed for tracking Secretary Austin. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby says there is already a check in every morning that is logged. We're not going to track the GPS coordinates on a somebody's mobile phone in the administration, and we're not going to plan a microchip in their neck like their appoodle. They check in every day and we know where they are. Kirby admits the White House does need to know if a cabinet official becomes hospitalized or needs to delegate his or her authority. In Washington, Nancy lyons Bloomberg Radio. The International Court of Justice is hearing South Africa's case accusing Israel of genocide in its war in Gaza. Francis Boyce is Professor of international law at the University of Illinois and is a legal advisor to the State of Palestine. South Africa presented a solid case. I predict South Africa will win in order against Israel to cease and desist from committing all acts of genocide against the Palestinians. Israel is set to present its case today. Global news twenty four hours a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now, I maybe Morris in this is Bloomberg caron. All right, Ami, thank you. What we do bring you news throughout the day right here on Bloomberg Radio. But now you can get the latest news on demand, and that means whenever you want it. Just subscribe to Bloomberg News Now to get the latest headlines if the click of a button, get informed on your schedule. You can listen and subscribe to Bloomberg News Now on the Bloomberg Business app, Bloomberg dot Com plus Apples, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Time now for the Bloomberg Sports Update. Here's John Stashaur, John Karen What a while twenty four hours of football coaching departures first, Pete Carroll in Seattle followed quickly by Nick Saban and Alabama, and then yesterday morning, Bill Belichick in New England. Between the three, they held their most current positions for total of fifty five years. Saban and Belichick are close friends. In the nineteen nineties in Cleveland, Saban was Belichick's assistant. When Belichick became Patriots coach, he replaced Carol, and in nineteen eighty Carol left his job as defensive back coach at Ohio State and was replaced by Saban. NFL playoffs begain tomorrow Wildcard round with Cleveland at Euston, the Browns quarterback by thirty eight year old Joe Flacco, the Texans by twenty two year old CJ. Straud, and then, in what's expected to be a fringid cold night in Kansas City, it's the Chiefs against the Dolphins tripleheader on Sunday, and then on Monday, Philadelphia plays at Tampa Bay. The Celtics went to Milwaukee, top two teams in the East. It was all Bucks up seventy five to thirty eight at halftime. Milwaukee won one thirty five to one oh two, now twenty six and twelve on the seas in while the Celts dropped to twenty nine to nine. Talk about a blowout. It was Oklahoma City one thirty nine and Portland seventy seven, so the thunder one by sixty two. There was a game in Paris. Cleveland got forty five points from Donovan Mitchell Breet Brooklyn one eleven to one O two. John stansh Eward Bloomberg Sports from coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco, Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on Syrias exam the Bloomberg Business Appen Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager. The risk of a wider war in the Middle East is in focus. The US and UK launched dozens of air strikes overnight against Hoothy militants in Yemen. This follows weeks of attacks on red Sea shipping that the Houthis have pledged to contin you until Israel stops the fighting against Hamas in Gaza. For the latest were joined by Rosalind mathieson our Europe, Middle East and Africa news director for Bloomberg News. Ros thanks for being with us once again. Now the Houthis are saying that these new air strikes will not go unanswered. They say, several of their members have been killed. What is the risk of a wider war at this point, well, that is the big question in the aftermath of this. The US had been saying for some days unless the Houthis stopped their attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, that there would be quoite consequences. So in a way they were compelled to do something, and these were very tactical, surgical strikes. The Houthis are saying that the death toll was five on their end and fairly small, and that these stripes were very well telegraphed also, which allowed them to clear out of some of their bases. So it does seem the objective was to make a point to the Huthies without escalating, and the Hoothy's feeling they need to take massive retaliation, or more importantly, their big backers Iran feeling they need to take some kind of retaliatory action. So it seems to have been sort of a calibrated response by the US and the UK, and there are other partners overnight. Of course, it does come though at a time of high tension in the region. You've got the war between Israel and Hamas and Gaza still going on. You've got this disruption to shipping in the area. You've got Hesblah occasionally having rocket exchanges with Israel from Lebanon in the north, and so there's a lot going on at the moment and a high tension environment. And so the question is at what point, if any, do some of these Iranian proxies tip things over into a full scale conflict. At least we can The initial interpretation from these air strikes overnight is that it's not designed to do that. We do have not just the Houthis backed by Iran, but Hesbolah backed by Iran that's been engaged in cross border skirmishes with Israel for months now as well. We are seeing this jump in oil prices. You have to wonder, when we're seeing the possibility of multiple fronts opening up in this war, whether we could see even further risk premium placed on commodities. It was interesting because the main move overnight was in oil and it moved up about two percent or so, but other sort of major assets were fairly calm in the face of this, because again it had been well telegraphed and right now the main thing is that even though there are these disruptions to shipping and there are concerns, particularly about what Iran might do next, supply has not been massively impacted. And it comes at a time, of course, where there are sort of question's over demand at the other end, and so you're not really seeing this long sort of running premium come into either oil or gas. What you are seeing is disruption to supply chains that may escalate and that may start to affect more companies who need to have their parts or products shipped through that part of the world, and that could be a real issue if the Suez Canal comes into the mix further. But it's interesting to not see a massive move so far in oil or gas in recent weeks and even overnight, and that is a signal that the market really seems to think that supply is not currently at risk. In terms of trying to tampen down the tensions in the region, what's the balance that the Biden administration is trying to strike here when we are starting to see these attacks take place, just after Secretary of State Anthony Blinkn had been back in the region trying to urge Israel to lower the temperature with hummies. Well, that's right. He just wrapped up his latest trip, which was his fourth I thinking in quick succession, and he toured the region and he visited a lot of countries to get their sense of things, and then ended up in Israel at the end. But his message has been about ensuring that this doesn't spill over into a broader crisis, messaging quite strongly with a run on that front, but also trying to press Israel to de escalate its conflict on the ground in Gaza, and so far the signs are that Israel's not particularly interested in doing that. They say that their ultimate goal remains the same, which is to make sure that Hamas can never again attack them in the way that they did back in October, and there's work still to be done there. So it seems as though the US is not having massive success getting Israel to listen to them on that front. In Israel says their war in Gaza is likely to go on at least for some months yet, and then the big question about what happens in Gaza obviously when the fighting stops. And so even though Blinken in his trip and other USE officials are sort of touting the desire of everybody to find some stability in all of this. You wouldn't really think that he came away from his latest trip with much to show for it. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Today, your morning brief on the story's making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. Look for us on your podcast feed at six am Eastern each morning, on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your You can also listen live each morning starting at five am Wall Street time on Bloomberg eleven three to zero in New York, Bloomberg ninety nine one in Washington, Bloomberg one oh sixty one in Boston, and Bloomberg ninety sixty in San Francisco. Our flagship New York station is also available on your Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty plus. Listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app, SERIUSXM, the iHeartRadio app, and on Bloomberg dot Com. I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start your day, right here on Bloomberg Daybreak

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