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Episode 17: What is going to happen next?

On Geopolitics

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The Importance of Assessment Analysis

Predicting and forecasting is so unhelpful, says Lord Tebbit. You can only spot the sort of outlier event that's a clue that something's going to happen if you're tracking all the other events. The question on will Vladimir Putin invade Ukraine is a question of intent - we know what his capabilities are; the question is whether he'll do it. If we believe it's a possibility, then we need to consider what we're going to do now to stop it happening.

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