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Unlocking UAP Mysteries: Economics, Aliens, and The Great Filter | Merged EP 9

MERGED

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How to Calculate Probability for UFOs

The key idea for UAPs would be what the hell? We have four major categories of theories. They could be just mistakes in hallucinations, they could be lies in hoaxes or it could be some alien organization with amazing powers. In order to guess the relative chances of those hypotheses, we need to have two things for each hypothesis. One is what's called a likelihood. The chance that the evidence we see would happen if that were the truth. Another thing we need is a prior. What's the chance that that sort of thing would happen, ignoring the evidence? And if we can multiply those two things together, normalize over these four options, and then that's how we get

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