2026 Outlook: Cycle Theories & Catalysts

The Last Trade: Matt Odell on the 2025 postmortem: why BTC lagged gold, how DATs wrecked sentiment, what the quantum debate gets wrong, and what changes when institutions take the wheel.

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🎙️ About This Episode

With Matt Odell in the studio, we run a proper 2025 postmortem: why the “OGs are dumping” narrative never dies, what actually changes when Bitcoin’s liquidity deepens, and why it’s healthy (not bearish) for long-term supply to distribute over time.

From there, we tackle the elephant in the room: gold and equities ripped while BTC chopped. Matt’s take is simple and brutal, retail is broke, capital is hiding in perceived safe havens, and Bitcoin still gets treated like a high-risk tech trade if you don’t understand self-custody. We also dig into the October break in the crypto casino and how forced sellers can pin price even when long-term fundamentals look strong.

Then we get honest about the cultural and structural fallout from “Bitcoin treasury companies” & DATs: how leverage-on-leverage turned into a negative feedback loop, why board seats and influencer incentives distorted the narrative, and why the only benchmark that matters is whether these wrappers can actually beat spot bitcoin over time.

Finally, we hit the quantum panic. Matt lays out a sober framework: upgrade carefully, opt-in where possible, don’t rush into untested cryptography, and don’t even flirt with protocol-level seizures or “freezing” coins. If Bitcoin compromises neutral property rights to “save” the market, it’s no longer Bitcoin. We close with what this all implies for 2026: whether cycles are fading, where the next reflexive move could come from, and why the most bearish sentiment is often the best tell.

The Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, & finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, & Brian Cubellis. Join us as we dive into what bitcoin means for how individuals & institutions save, invest, & propagate their purchasing power through time. It's not just another asset… in the digital age, it's The Last Trade that investors will ever need to make.

🧠 Chapters

00:00 - Christmas Greetings + Why 2025 Felt So Weird

01:42 - “OGs Dumping” Bitcoin: Meme Narrative vs. Reality

03:35 - Liquidity, Distribution, & Engagement Bait

06:24 - Sentiment, Macro, & the “Quiet Depression” View

09:42 - Institutions, ETFs, & How Market Structure Changes the Cycle

12:35 - DATs / Treasury-Co Mania: Why It Took Over 2025

16:27 - Cultural Fragmentation + Incentives

22:36 - Quantum FUD Deep Dive

45:25 - Why the Next Move Will Catch People Offside

48:25 - Centralization Risk, Custodians, & How a Fork Would Play Out

55:28 - Why Quantum Became the “Last Remaining FUD”

59:11 - Stablecoins, Tether, & the Institutional Rails Story

01:02:20 - SBR: Expectations vs. Reality + 2026 Scenarios

01:06:20 - Gold’s Run, the Debasement Trade, & the Bitcoin Setup

01:10:27 - 2026 Outlook: Cycle Theories & What Could Flip the Switch

01:29:21 - Outro & Disclaimer

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