
Adam Butler - Questioning the Quant Orthodoxy (S5E13)
Flirting with Models
The Trade Off Between Strong Priors and Weak Priors
In theory, if you trade a strategy based on random signals, then your expected return is going to be random noise minus trading costs. So there's also an opportunity cost in deciding to trade strategies informed by random noise rather than strategies that are informed by skill. The challenge is that most of the things that matter in life are a result of complex dynamics interacting with random noise. At anything daily bars or higher, the no priors approach is hard.
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